Неэффективное распределение капитала и финансовая несостоятельность: социальные последствия для китайских компаний

Неэффективное распределение финансового капитала способно усиливать уязвимость компаний, ограничивая их финансовую устойчивость и создавая социальные последствия для заинтересованных сторон. Цель исследования заключается в изучении влияния неэффективного распределения капитала на финансовую несостоятельность китайских листинговых компаний за период 2010–2023 гг. и выявлении основных механизмов этой взаимосвязи. Эмпирический анализ основан на панельных данных китайских компаний, акции которых обращаются на рынке A-shares, за 2010–2023 гг. Исходные данные получены из базы CSMAR. Для оценки взаимосвязей применялись регрессионные модели с индивидуальными и временными фиксированными эффектами и робастными стандартными ошибками. Результаты показывают, что неэффективное распределение капитала статистически значимо повышает риск финансовой несостоятельности. Устойчивость результата подтверждается при использовании O-score (коэффициент 0.0410), включении показателя регионального финансового развития (−0.1189) и исключении наблюдений за 2019–2020 гг. Анализ механизмов показывает, что неэффективное распределение капитала снижает операционную рентабельность компаний (−0.0094) и одновременно увеличивает степень манипулирования финансовым рычагом (0.0423). Неэффективное распределение капитала сильнее повышает риск финансового дистресса среди не трудоинтенсивных компаний (−0.1379) и компаний конкурентных отраслей (−0.1196). Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что повышение эффективности распределения финансовых ресурсов и ограничение избыточной долговой нагрузки могут способствовать снижению риска финансовой несостоятельности и укреплению устойчивости компаний.

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