Socio-Economic Efficiency of Investments in Kazakhstan’s Agro-Industrial Complex

Kazakhstan's agro-industrial complex is a key sector that ensures food security and the country's sustainable economic development. The study aims to assess the impact of investments on agricultural productivity and their share in gross domestic product, accounting for lag effects. The initial data includes annual statistical indicators of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2015-2024. The methodological basis consists of correlation analysis, calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients, and multidimensional analysis of variance (MANCOVA), followed by a univariate decomposition of effects. The results showed that investments in the non-resource sector demonstrate the strongest positive relationship with labor productivity in agriculture (r = 0.959), while private investments also have a high correlation (r = 0.882). On the contrary, the agricultural investment index has no significant impact on production indicators (r = -0.116) and output dynamics (r = 0.120). At the same time, the share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 4.8% to 3.8% over the study period, despite total investments increasing by more than 2 times. MANCOVA's results confirmed a statistically significant impact of investments in the non-resource sector on productivity alone (p < 0.001), whereas the impact of investments directly in agriculture and of private investment was statistically insignificant. Thus, a gap has been identified between investment volume and economic returns, indicating a need to improve the effectiveness of investment policy and to focus on structural and technological factors in agricultural sector development.

1. Antwi-Bediako, R., Otsuki, K., Zoomers, A., & Amsalu, A. (2019). Global investment failures and transformations: A review of hyped Jatropha spaces. Sustainability, 11(12), 3371.https://doi.org/10.3390/su11123371

2. Alibekova, V., Abildaev, S., & Shaldarbekova, K. (2023). Analysis of Features of Investment Attractiveness of Agriculture in Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 67(2), 146-157. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v2i67.296

3. Awaliyyah, E. Z., Chen, S. E., Anindita, R., & Suhartini, S. (2020). Analysis of structural transformation of labor from agriculture to non-agriculture in Asia. Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal, 20(4), 335-341. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2020.20.4.9

4. Baiterek National Managing Holding. (2024). Update of the agro-industrial complex development concept. https://baiterek.gov.kz/ru/programs/obnovlenie-na-sayte-kontseptsii-apk-1-pg-2024g

5. Bekbossinova, A., & Doszhan, R. (2025). The impact of digitalization and investment on agricultural development in Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 69(1), 81-96. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v69i1.474

6. Bellemare, M. F. (2010). Agricultural extension and imperfect supervision in contract farming: evidence from Madagascar. Agricultural Economics, 41(6), 507-517. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00462.x

7. Bellemare, M. F. (2018). Contract farming: opportunity cost and trade-offs. Agricultural Economics, 49(3), 279-288. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12415

8. Bellemare, M. F., Masaki, T., & Pepinsky, T. B. (2017). Lagged explanatory variables and the estimation of causal effect. The journal of politics, 79(3), 949-963.

9. Bureau of National Statistics. (2025). Statistics of national accounts. Retrieved April 15, 2026, from https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/economy/national-accounts/

10. Christiaensen, L., Demery, L., & Kuhl, J. (2011). The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction—An empirical perspective. Journal of development economics, 96(2), 239-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.10.006

11. McCullough, E. B. (2017). Labor productivity and employment gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa. Food policy, 67, 133-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.013

12. Christiaensen, L., & Martin, W. (2018). Agriculture, structural transformation and poverty reduction: Eight new insights. World Development, 109, 413-416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.027

13. Clapp, J. (2017). Responsibility to the rescue? Governing private financial investment in global agriculture. Agriculture and human values, 34(1), 223-235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-015-9678-8

14. Cochrane, L., Li, E. P., Dejene, M., & Husain, M. M. (2024). Why foreign agricultural investment fails? Five lessons from Ethiopia. Journal of International Development, 36(1), 541-558. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3827

15. Czubak, W., & Pawłowski, K. P. (2024). The impact of agricultural investments on the economic efficiency of production factors: An empirical study of the Wielkopolska Voivodeship. Agriculture, 14(12), 2217. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14122217

16. El Bilali, H., Strassner, C., & Ben Hassen, T. (2021). Sustainable agri-food systems: environment, economy, society, and policy. Sustainability, 13(11), 6260. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116260

17. Felipe, J., Dacuycuy, C., & Lanzafame, M. (2014). The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the Peopleu27s Republic of China: How Fast? https://core.ac.uk/download/33598284.pdf

18. Fuglie, K. O. (2018). Is agricultural productivity slowing?. Global food security, 17, 73-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2018.05.001

19. Gollin, D., Parente, S., & Rogerson, R. (2002). The role of agriculture in development. American economic review, 92(2), 160-164. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802320189177

20. Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2021). Concept for the development of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021–2030 (Resolution No. 960, December 30, 2021). https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P2100000960

21. Iga, M. (2014). Changing agri-food systems in the global economy. Japanese Journal of Human Geography, 66(6), 552- 564. https://doi.org/10.4200/jjhg.66.6_552

22. Irz, X., Lin, L., Thirtle, C., & Wiggins, S. (2001). Agricultural productivity growth and poverty alleviation. Development policy review, 19(4), 449-466. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7679.00144

23. Kołodziejczak, W. (2025). Labour productivity and employment in agriculture in the European Union. European Research Studies Journal, Volume 28, Issue 1. https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/135099

24. Larik, S. A., Amin, A., Gul, A., Panhwar, P., Murtaza Sahito, J. G., & Hua, G. (2024). Investigating the impact of agricultural credit on wheat farming: Evidence from Pakistan. Agriculture, 14(12), 2200. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14122200

25. Loizou, E., Karelakis, C., Galanopoulos, K., & Mattas, K. (2019). The role of agriculture as a development tool for a regional economy. Agricultural systems, 173, 482-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.04.002

26. Megyesiova, S. (2021). Production, employment and productivity of agricultural sector in the European Union. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 27(5). https://www.agrojournal.org/27/05-04.pdf

27. Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2024). Minister of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan held a meeting with representatives of the Eurasian Economic Commission. https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/moa/press/news/details/1192410?lang=ru

28. Mogues, T., Fan, S., & Benin, S. (2015). Public investments in and for agriculture. The European Journal of Development Research, 27(3), 337-352. https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2015.40

29. Moon, W., & Lee, J. M. (2013). Economic Development, Agricultural Growth and Labour Productivity in Asia. Journal of Comparative Asian Development, 12(1), 113–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/15339114.2013.776819

30. Nolte, K. (2020). Doomed to fail? Why some land-based investment projects fail. Applied Geography, 122, 102268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102268

31. Santeramo, F. G., Jelliffe, J., & Hoekman, B. (2024). Agri-food value chains and the global food dollar: The role of trade and services. Food Policy, 127, 102706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102706

32. Stads, G. J., Nin-Pratt, A., WIEBE, K., Sulser, T. B., & Benfica, R. (2023). Public investment in agri-food system innovation for sustainable development. ENGINEERING Agriculture, 10(1), 124. https://journal.hep.com.cn/fase/EN/10.15302/J-FASE-2023484

33. United Nations Development Programme. (2024). Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and UNDP strengthen partnership in sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex. https://www.undp.org/ru/kazakhstan/press-releases/ministerstvo-selskogo-khozyaystva-rk-i-proonukreplyayut-partnerstvo-v-sfere-ustoychivogo-razvitiya-apk

34. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2024). Ag and food sectors and the economy. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectorsand-the-economy

35. Webb, R., & Buratini, J. (2018). Global challenges for the 21st century: the role and strategy of the agri-food sector. Animal Reproduction (AR), 13(3), 133-142. http://dx.doi.org/10.21451/1984-3143-AR882

36. Yaqoob, N., Ali, S. A., Kannaiah, D., Khan, N., Shabbir, M. S., Bilal, K., & Tabash, M. I. (2023). The effects of agriculture productivity, land intensification, on sustainable economic growth: a panel analysis from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan Economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(55), 116440-116448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18471-6

37. Yessimkhan, G., & Sartanova, N. (2024). Ensuring sustainable agricultural development in Kazakhstan: Sources of funding. https://doi.org/10.18461/ijfsd.v15i3.L0

38. Zafeiriou, E., Karelakis, C., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Galanopoulos, K., & Gkika, D. (2023). Economic development and pesticide use in EU agriculture: a nonlinear panel data autoregressive distributed lag approach. Agriculture, 13(9), 1693. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13091693

39. Zhanaltay, Z. (2023). Agricultural development of Kazakhstan. Eurasian Research Journal, 5(4), 45-58. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/3511755