Қазақстан өңірлеріндегі инновациялар диффузиясы, білімнің таралуы және экономикалық өсу

Аймақтық дифференциацияның күшеюі және экономиканың цифрлық трансформациясы жағдайында өңірлердің экономикалық өсу факторларын сандық тұрғыдан бағалау қажеттілігі артып отыр. Зерттеудің мақсаты – Қазақстан өңірлерінің экономикалық өсуіне адами капиталдың, инновациялық белсенділіктің, әлеуметтік жағдайлардың және әлемдік мұнай бағасының динамикасының әсерін сандық тұрғыдан бағалау. Зерттеудің әдіснамалық негізін догоняющий өсу моделінің шеңберіндегі бекітілген әсерлері бар панельдік модель, сондай-ақ өңіраралық спилловерлерді есепке алу үшін кеңістіктік эконометрика әдістері құрайды. Бағалау нәтижелері көрсеткендей, экономикалық өсудің ең маңызды факторлары – мұнай бағасы мен инновациялық белсенділік. Модельдеу нәтижелері бойынша әлемдік мұнай бағасының 1%-ға өсуі жалпы өңірлік өнімнің (ЖӨӨ) өсу қарқынын орта есеппен 0,48%-ға арттырады, бұл әсер мұнай өндіруші өңірлерде 0,54%, ал қалған өңірлерде 0,44% құрайды. Технологиялық инновацияларға жұмсалатын шығындар оң және статистикалық тұрғыдан мәнді әсер көрсетеді (β = 2.15, p < 0.01), ал инновациялардың өңіраралық спилловерлік әсері жоғары (β = 11.8, p < 0.01). Денсаулық сақтау саласының үлесі де маңызды (β = 5.66, p < 0.05), ал ҒЗТКЖ-ға, білім беруге және негізгі капиталға инвестицияларға жұмсалатын шығындар қысқа мерзімде статистикалық тұрғыдан мәнді әсер көрсетпеді. Әлемдік мұнай бағасының динамикасы мен өңірлердің орташа ЖӨӨ өсуі арасында жоғары корреляция анықталды (r = 0.87). Сонымен қатар, ҒЗТКЖ, білім беру және негізгі капиталға инвестициялар қысқа мерзімді кезеңде статистикалық тұрғыдан мәнді әсер көрсетпейді. Алынған нәтижелер мұнай факторының басым рөлін және инновациялық спилловерлердің өңірлік экономикалық өсудің негізгі драйверлері ретіндегі маңыздылығын растайды.

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