Диффузия инноваций, перетоки знаний и региональный экономический рост в Казахстане

В условиях усиления региональной дифференциации и цифровой трансформации экономики возрастает необходимость количественной оценки факторов экономического роста регионов. Цель исследования заключается в количественной оценке влияния человеческого капитала, инновационной активности, социальных условий и динамики мировых цен на нефть на экономический рост регионов Казахстана. Методологическую основу исследования составляют панельная модель с фиксированными эффектами в рамках модели догоняющего роста, а также методы пространственной эконометрики для учета межрегиональных спилловеров. Результаты оценки показывают, что наиболее значимыми факторами роста являются цены на нефть и инновационная активность. Результаты моделирования показывают, что рост мировых цен на нефть на 1% увеличивает темпы роста ВРП в среднем на 0.48%, при этом эффект составляет 0.54% для нефтедобывающих регионов и 0.44% для остальных. Расходы на технологические инновации оказывают положительное и статистически значимое влияние β = 2.15 (p < 0.01), при межрегиональных спилловерах инноваций составляет β = 11.8 (p < 0.01). Вклад здравоохранения также значим ((β = 5.66, p < 0.05), тогда как расходы на НИОКР, образование и инвестиции в основной капитал не показали статистически значимого краткосрочного эффекта. Установлена высокая корреляция между динамикой мировых цен на нефть и средним ростом ВРП регионов (r = 0.87). В то же время расходы на НИОКР, образование и инвестиции в основной капитал не демонстрируют статистически значимого краткосрочного эффекта. Полученные результаты подтверждают доминирующую роль нефтяного фактора и значимость инновационных спилловеров как ключевых драйверов регионального экономического роста.

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