Анализ социальных рисков интеллектуального видеомониторинга в Казахстане

Рост цифровизации и развитие концепции «умный город» способствуют активному внедрению проектов государственночастного партнерства (далее – ГЧП) с использованием технологий искусственного интеллекта в сфере городской инфраструктуры и обеспечения безопасности дорожного движения. Целью данного исследования является оценка социальных рисков проекта интеллектуального видеомониторинга «Сергек» в Казахстане, реализуемого в рамках концепции «умный город», с использованием методов системной динамики и анализа чувствительности показателя дисконтированного денежного потока. Методология исследования основана на изучении данных проекта с последующим построением модели проекта с помощью системной динамики (далее – СД), которая позволяет продемонстрировать различные сценарии влияния факторов риска. В исследовании использованы данные открытых источников, включая сведения PPP Portal Республики Казахстан, данные акимата г. Алматы и Национального банка РК. Результаты моделирования показали, что наиболее высокий показатель дисконтированного денежного потока (далее – DCF) наблюдается в базовом сценарии без учета рисков и достигает 7 668 340 000 тенге в 2024 г., снижаясь до 6 781 390 000 тенге в 2025 г. Наибольшее негативное влияние на финансовую устойчивость проекта оказывает социальный риск, связанный с недобором поступлений от штрафов, при котором значение DCF снижается до 6 287 440 000 тенге. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что социальный риск является наиболее значимым фактором финансовой устойчивости проекта интеллектуального видеомониторинга.

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