qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2026-2-160-181qainar-583Research ArticleСтатьиСоциально-экономические аспекты энергетического перехода в ресурсозависимых странахSocio-Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition in Resource-Dependent Countrieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8845-0898БолуспаевШ. А.BoluspayevSh. A.

PhD, доцент 

Алматы 

Shalkar A. Boluspayev – PhD 

Almaty 

shalkar.boluspayev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-0948ТемербулатоваЖ. С.TemerbulatovaZh. S.

PhD 

Алматы 

Zhansaya S. Temerbulatova – PhD 

Almaty 

t.zhansaya.s@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2186-1152СалибековаП. К.SalibekovaP. K.

магистр экономических наук 

Алматы 

Perizat K. Salibekova – Master of Economics 

Almaty 

ms.salibekova@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-7946-6584СматаеваА. Ж.SmatayevaA. Zh.

PhD докторант 

Алматы 

Akmaral Zh. Smatayeva – PhD student 

Almaty 

akmaralka_07@mail.ruАлматы менеджмент университетКазахстанAlmaty Management UniversityKazakhstanКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan20260107202652160181Copyright © Болуспаев Ш.А., Темербулатова Ж.С., Салибекова П.К., Сматаева А.Ж., 20262026Болуспаев Ш.А., Темербулатова Ж.С., Салибекова П.К., Сматаева А.Ж.Boluspayev S.A., Temerbulatova Z.S., Salibekova P.K., Smatayeva A.Z.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/583

В условиях глобального энергетического перехода развитие возобновляемых источников энергии приобретает особое значение для ресурсозависимых стран, стремящихся снизить сырьевую зависимость и обеспечить устойчивое социально-экономическое развитие. Цель исследования заключается в оценке влияния развития возобновляемой энергетики на экономическую диверсификацию ресурсозависимых экономик на примере Казахстана, Норвегии и Объединённых Арабских Эмиратов. Методологическую основу исследования составили описательная статистика, корреляционный анализ, а также панельные регрессионные модели с объединёнными, фиксированными и случайными эффектами. Исходные данные охватывают период 2002–2021 гг. и включают 60 панельных наблюдений. Результаты показали, что среднее значение индекса экономической диверсификации составило 0,57, доли ВИЭ – 19,94%, нефтяной ренты – 13,88% ВВП, индекса человеческого капитала – 3,25, качества институтов – 66,43. Корреляционный анализ выявил положительную связь диверсификации с качеством институтов (r=0.655) и ВВП на душу населения (r=0.662). В панельных моделях развитие возобновляемых источников энергии не показало устойчивого статистически значимого влияния на диверсификацию, тогда как нефтяная рента оказала отрицательное влияние в модели фиксированных эффектов (β=-0.0046; p<0,01) и случайных эффектов (β=-0.0040; p<0,01). Результаты показывают, что в ресурсозависимых странах развитие возобновляемых источников энергии важно для диверсификации экономики, но его эффект усиливается только при снижении нефтяной зависимости, развитии человеческого капитала и улучшении институтов.

In the context of the global energy transition, the development of renewable energy sources is of particular importance for resourcedependent countries seeking to reduce their dependence on raw materials and ensure sustainable socio-economic development. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of renewable energy development on the economic diversification of resource-dependent economies using the examples of Kazakhstan, Norway and the United Arab Emirates. The methodological basis of the study was made up of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and panel regression models with combined, fixed, and random effects. The initial data covers the period 2002-2021 and includes 60 panel observations. The results showed that the average value of the economic diversification index was 0.57, the share of renewable energy was 19.94%, oil rents were 13.88% of GDP, the human capital index was 3.25, and the quality of institutions was 66.43. Correlation analysis revealed a positive relationship between diversification and the quality of institutions (r=0.655) and GDP per capita (r=0.662). In the panel models, the development of renewable energy sources did not show a stable statistically significant effect on diversification, whereas oil rents had a negative effect in the fixed effects (β=-0.0046; p<0.01) and random effects (β=-0.0040; p<0.01) models. The results show that in resource-dependent countries, the development of renewable energy sources is important for economic diversification, but its effect is enhanced only by reducing oil dependence, developing human capital, and improving institutions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.