qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2026-2-143-159qainar-582Research ArticleСтатьиЭкономический рост и экологическая нагрузка в Казахстане: социальные последствияEconomic Growth and Environmental Pressure in Kazakhstan: Social Implicationshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2000-4135ЖайлаубаеваЖ.ZhailaubayevaZh.

PhD докторант, старший преподаватель 

Актау

Zhadra Zhailaubayeva – PhD student, Senior Lecturer 

Aktau 

zhadra.zhailaubayeva@yu.edu.kzДжолдасбаеваГ. У.JoldasbayevaG. U.

к.э.н. 

Актау

Gulsara U. Joldasbayeva – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Professor 

Aktau 

gulsara.joldasbayeva@yu.edu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4326-7824АймагамбетоваА. Д.AimagambetovaA. D.

к.э.н., старший преподаватель 

Кызылорда 

Aida D. Aimagambetova – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Senior Lecturer 

Kyzylorda 

23aida@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-3875-1941ДжрауоваК. С.JrauovaK. S.

к.э.н., старший преподаватель 

Кызылорда 

Kuralay S. Jrauova – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Senior Lecturer 

Kyzylorda 

dzhrauovakuralai@gmail.comКаспийский университет технологий и инжиниринга имени Ш. ЕсеноваКазахстанCaspian University of Technology and Engineering named after Sh. YessenovKazakhstanКызылординский университет имени Коркыт АтаКазахстанKorkyt Ata Kyzylorda UniversityKazakhstan20260107202652143159Copyright © Жайлаубаева Ж., Джолдасбаева Г.У., Аймагамбетова А.Д., Джрауова К.С., 20262026Жайлаубаева Ж., Джолдасбаева Г.У., Аймагамбетова А.Д., Джрауова К.С.Zhailaubayeva Z., Joldasbayeva G.U., Aimagambetova A.D., Jrauova K.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/582

В условиях усиления экологической нагрузки и роста объемов отходов возрастает необходимость оценки взаимосвязи между экономическим ростом и показателями экологической эффективности. Цель исследования заключается в оценке взаимосвязи между экономическим ростом Казахстана и показателями образования и переработки отходов, потребления энергии, энергоёмкости и энергетической продуктивности. Информационную базу исследования составили официальные статистические данные Республики Казахстан за 2015–2024 гг. В исследовании применены методы нормализации, серого реляционного анализа и множественного регрессионного анализа. По результатам серого реляционного анализа наиболее высокие коэффициенты связи с динамикой ВВП установлены для удельного объёма коммунальных отходов на единицу ВВП (0,717), объёма опасных отходов (0,714) и объёма промышленных отходов (0,707), что свидетельствует о том, что изменения указанных показателей в наибольшей степени совпадали с направлением и характером изменения ВВП в исследуемом периоде. Объём опасных отходов имеет статистически значимую отрицательную связь с ВВП (B = −0,645; p = 0,012), тогда как связь промышленных отходов с ВВП статистически не подтверждена (B = −0,033; p = 0,827). Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что экономический рост Казахстана был теснее связан с увеличением объёмов отходов, особенно опасных, чем с развитием переработки и повышением энергоэффективности. Выводы обосновывают необходимость развития инфраструктуры переработки, усиления контроля за опасными отходами и перехода к более ресурсоэффективной модели экономического роста.

In the context of increasing environmental pressures and waste volumes, there is a growing need to assess the relationship between economic growth and environmental performance indicators. The purpose of the study is to assess the relationship between Kazakhstan's economic growth and indicators of waste generation and recycling, energy consumption, energy intensity, and energy productivity. The study's information base consisted of official statistical data from the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2015-2024. The research employs normalization, gray relational analysis, and multiple regression analysis. According to the results of the gray relational analysis, the highest coefficients of correlation with GDP dynamics were established for the specific volume of municipal waste per unit of GDP (0.717), the volume of hazardous waste (0.714) and the volume of industrial waste (0.707), which indicates that the changes in these indicators most closely coincided with the direction and nature of the change in GDP in the studied period. The volume of hazardous waste has statistically significant negative relationship with GDP (B = -0.645; p = 0.012), while the association of industrial waste with GDP has not been statistically confirmed (B = -0.033; p = 0.827). The results show that Kazakhstan's economic growth was more closely related to an increase in waste volumes, especially hazardous waste, than to the development of recycling and increased energy efficiency. The findings substantiate the need to develop recycling infrastructure, strengthen control over hazardous waste, and transition to a more resourceefficient model of economic growth.

экологияэкологическая нагрузказеленая экономикаустойчивое развитиекачество жизнисоциальный рисксоциальное благополучиеEcologyEnvironmental ImpactGreen EconomySustainable DevelopmentQuality of LifeSocial RiskSocial Well-BeingReferencesAlshuwaikhat, H. M., Adenle, Y. A., & Alotaishan, T. N. (2023). The development of a grey relational analysis-based composite index for environmental sustainability assessment: Towards a net-zero emissions strategy in Saudi Arabia. Heliyon, 9(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18192Alshuwaikhat, H. M., Adenle, Y. A., & Alotaishan, T. N. (2023). The development of a grey relational analysis-based composite index for environmental sustainability assessment: Towards a net-zero emissions strategy in Saudi Arabia. Heliyon, 9(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18192Arion, F. H., Aleksanyan, V., Markosyan, D., & Arion, I. D. (2023). Circular pathways to sustainable development: understanding the links between circular economy indicators, economic growth, social well-being, and environmental performance in EU-27. Sustainability, 15(24), 16883. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152416883Arion, F. H., Aleksanyan, V., Markosyan, D., & Arion, I. D. (2023). Circular pathways to sustainable development: understanding the links between circular economy indicators, economic growth, social well-being, and environmental performance in EU-27. Sustainability, 15(24), 16883. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152416883Banjerdpaiboon, A., & Limleamthong, P. (2023). Assessment of national circular economy performance using superefficiency dual data envelopment analysis and Malmquist productivity index: Case study of 27 European countries. Heliyon, 9(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16584Banjerdpaiboon, A., & Limleamthong, P. (2023). Assessment of national circular economy performance using superefficiency dual data envelopment analysis and Malmquist productivity index: Case study of 27 European countries. Heliyon, 9(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16584Birat, J. P. (2015). Life-cycle assessment, resource efficiency and recycling. Metallurgical Research & Technology, 112(2), 206. https://doi.org/10.1051/metal/2015009Birat, J. P. (2015). Life-cycle assessment, resource efficiency and recycling. Metallurgical Research & Technology, 112(2), 206. https://doi.org/10.1051/metal/2015009Bureau of National Statistics. (2025). Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved December 15, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kz/enBureau of National Statistics. (2025). Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved December 15, 2024 from https://stat.gov.kz/enCerqueira, P. A., Soukiazis, E., & Proença, S. (2021). Assessing the linkages between recycling, renewable energy and sustainable development: evidence from the OECD countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(7), 9766-9791. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00780-4Cerqueira, P. A., Soukiazis, E., & Proença, S. (2021). Assessing the linkages between recycling, renewable energy and sustainable development: evidence from the OECD countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(7), 9766-9791. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00780-4Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S. J., Kubiszewski, I., Farber, S., & Turner, R. K. (2014). Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global environmental change, 26, 152-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S. J., Kubiszewski, I., Farber, S., & Turner, R. K. (2014). Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global environmental change, 26, 152-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002Diyar, S., Akparova, A., Toktabayev, A., & Tyutunnikova, M. (2014). Green economy–innovation-based development of Kazakhstan. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 140, 695-699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.04.497Diyar, S., Akparova, A., Toktabayev, A., & Tyutunnikova, M. (2014). Green economy–innovation-based development of Kazakhstan. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 140, 695-699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.04.497Fritz, M., & Koch, M. (2014). Potentials for prosperity without growth: Ecological sustainability, social inclusion and the quality of life in 38 countries. Ecological Economics, 108, 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.10.021Fritz, M., & Koch, M. (2014). Potentials for prosperity without growth: Ecological sustainability, social inclusion and the quality of life in 38 countries. Ecological Economics, 108, 191-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.10.021Garg, V., Kaushik, P., & Kumar, A. (2025). A cross-country panel study on the impact of circular economy on resource efficiency. Discover Sustainability, 6(1), 1432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02300-8Garg, V., Kaushik, P., & Kumar, A. (2025). A cross-country panel study on the impact of circular economy on resource efficiency. Discover Sustainability, 6(1), 1432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02300-8Guoyan, S., Khaskheli, A., Raza, S. A., & Ahmed, M. (2022). Nonlinear impact of municipal solid waste recycling and energy efficiency on environmental performance and economic growth: evidence from non-parametric causality-in-quantiles. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(11), 16066-16081. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16721-1Guoyan, S., Khaskheli, A., Raza, S. A., & Ahmed, M. (2022). Nonlinear impact of municipal solid waste recycling and energy efficiency on environmental performance and economic growth: evidence from non-parametric causality-in-quantiles. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(11), 16066-16081. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16721-1Imangali, Z., & Bekturganova, M. (2024). Sustainable growth in Kazakhstan: Green economy, decarbonization and energy transition. Technoeconomics, 3, 14-25. https://doi.org/10.57809/2024.3.1.8.2Imangali, Z., & Bekturganova, M. (2024). Sustainable growth in Kazakhstan: Green economy, decarbonization and energy transition. Technoeconomics, 3, 14-25. https://doi.org/10.57809/2024.3.1.8.2Kose, E., Burmaoglu, S., & Kabak, M. (2013). Grey relational analysis between energy consumption and economic growth. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 3(3), 291-304. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-06-2013-0010Kose, E., Burmaoglu, S., & Kabak, M. (2013). Grey relational analysis between energy consumption and economic growth. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 3(3), 291-304. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-06-2013-0010Koçak, D. (2020). Green growth dynamics in OECD countries: an application of grey relational analysis. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 10(4), 545-563. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-01-2020-0016Koçak, D. (2020). Green growth dynamics in OECD countries: an application of grey relational analysis. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 10(4), 545-563. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-01-2020-0016Loiseau, E., Saikku, L., Antikainen, R., Droste, N., Hansjürgens, B., Pitkänen, K., Leskinen, P., Kuikman, P., & Thomsen, M. (2016). Green economy and related concepts: An overview. Journal of cleaner production, 139, 361-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.024Loiseau, E., Saikku, L., Antikainen, R., Droste, N., Hansjürgens, B., Pitkänen, K., Leskinen, P., Kuikman, P., & Thomsen, M. (2016). Green economy and related concepts: An overview. Journal of cleaner production, 139, 361-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.024Ospanova, A., Popovychenko, I. P., & Chuprina, E. (2022). Green economy–Vector of sustainable development. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 17(1), 171–181. http://dx.doi.org/10.35784/pe.2022.1.16Ospanova, A., Popovychenko, I. P., & Chuprina, E. (2022). Green economy–Vector of sustainable development. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 17(1), 171–181. http://dx.doi.org/10.35784/pe.2022.1.16Trushkina, N. (2022). Green economy in the conditions of modern challenges: conceptual frameworks. International Science Journal of Management, Economics & Finance, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.46299/j.isjmef.20220101.1Trushkina, N. (2022). Green economy in the conditions of modern challenges: conceptual frameworks. International Science Journal of Management, Economics & Finance, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.46299/j.isjmef.20220101.1Valero, A., Valero, A., & Calvo, G. (2015). Using thermodynamics to improve the resource efficiency indicator GDP/DMC. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 94, 110-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.12.001Valero, A., Valero, A., & Calvo, G. (2015). Using thermodynamics to improve the resource efficiency indicator GDP/DMC. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 94, 110-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.12.001Zhandar, A., Asanbayeva, A., & Zhakypbek, A. (2025). The problem of developing the green economy as a tool of sustainable development in Kazakhstan. Geography and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 27-33. https://doi.org/10.31489/3106-9649/2025-1-1.GSD/27-33Zhandar, A., Asanbayeva, A., & Zhakypbek, A. (2025). The problem of developing the green economy as a tool of sustainable development in Kazakhstan. Geography and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 27-33. https://doi.org/10.31489/3106-9649/2025-1-1.GSD/27-33Zhironkin, S., & Cehlár, M. (2022). Green economy and sustainable development: The outlook. Energies, 15(3), 1167. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031167Zhironkin, S., & Cehlár, M. (2022). Green economy and sustainable development: The outlook. Energies, 15(3), 1167. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031167Zvarych, R., Masna, O., & Rivilis, I. (2022). Methodological principles of the formation the concept of green economy. Herald of Economics, 4, 131-144. https://doi.org/10.35774/visnyk2022.04.131Zvarych, R., Masna, O., & Rivilis, I. (2022). Methodological principles of the formation the concept of green economy. Herald of Economics, 4, 131-144. https://doi.org/10.35774/visnyk2022.04.131

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.