qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2026-2-27-47qainar-576Research ArticleСтатьиЦифровые зелёные финансы и социальная инклюзия: эмпирические данные по странам Центральной АзииDigital Green Finance and Social Inclusion: Evidence from Central Asian Economieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-5123ДаулетхановаЖ. Д.DauletkhanovaZh. D.

доктор по профилю «финансы» 

Астана

Zhanar D. Dauletkhanova – Doctor by Profile in Finance, Senior Lecturer 

Astana 

dauletkhanovazhanar@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-3396-9045ЖакбаеваА. Х.ZhakbaevaA. K.

магистр, старший преподаватель 

Караганда

Aliman K. Zhakbaeva – Master’s Degree, Senior Lecturer 

Karaganda 

aliman.z@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-447XБазылжановаА. С.BazylzhanovaA. S.

магистр экономических наук, сеньор-лектор 

Кокшетау 

Ainur S. Bazylzhanova – Master of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer

Kokshetau

aina_2381@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-1153-5792СеилхановаА. С.SeilkhanovaA. S.

магистр экономических наук, сеньор-лектор 

Кокшетау

Assemgul S. Seilkhanova – Master of Economics, Senior Lecturer 

Kokshetau 

asalykova@mail.ruУниверситет Туран-АстанаКазахстанTuran-Astana UniversityKazakhstanКарагандинский технический университет имени Абылкаса СагиноваКазахстанAbylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical UniversityKazakhstanКокшетауский университет имени Ш. УалихановаКазахстанKokshetau University named after Sh. UalikhanovKazakhstanГуманитарно-техническая академияКазахстанHumanitarian and Technical Academy InstitutionKazakhstan202601072026522747Copyright © Даулетханова Ж.Д., Жакбаева А.Х., Базылжанова А.С., Сеилханова А.С., 20262026Даулетханова Ж.Д., Жакбаева А.Х., Базылжанова А.С., Сеилханова А.С.Dauletkhanova Z.D., Zhakbaeva A.K., Bazylzhanova A.S., Seilkhanova A.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/576

В условиях глобальной декарбонизации цифровизация финансового сектора становится ключевым фактором развития зелёных финансов и обеспечения социально инклюзивного экономического роста. Целью исследования является оценка влияния цифровизации финансового сектора на развитие зелёных финансов и их социальные эффекты в Казахстане и странах Центральной Азии. Методологическую основу составляют системный и сравнительный анализ, корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, а также сценарное моделирование. Эмпирическую базу исследования формируют данные за период 2015–2025 гг., а также выборка из 12 стран для межстранового анализа. Результаты исследования показывают наличие очень сильной положительной зависимости между уровнем цифровизации финансового сектора и объёмом зелёных инвестиций на душу населения (r = 0,988; R² = 0,977; p < 0,001). Множественная регрессия выявила, что наибольший вклад в развитие зелёных финансов оказывает охват ESG-регулирования, далее следуют цифровизация и финансовая инклюзия. Сценарное моделирование показало, что при достижении высокого уровня цифровой зрелости объём зелёных облигаций в Казахстане может увеличиться с 2,8 млрд долл. США до 14,2 млрд долл. США к 2030 году, сопровождаясь созданием до 67 тыс. новых «зелёных» рабочих мест. Полученные результаты подтверждают, что цифровизация является необходимым, но недостаточным условием развития зелёных финансов без соответствующего институционального и регуляторного обеспечения ESG.

In the context of global decarbonization, the digitalization of the financial sector is becoming a key factor in the development of green finance and ensuring socially inclusive economic growth. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of digitalization of the financial sector on the development of green finance and its social effects in Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries. The methodological basis consists of system and comparative analysis, correlation and regression analysis, as well as scenario modeling. The empirical basis of the study is formed by data for the period 2015-2025, as well as a sample from 12 countries for cross-country analysis. The results of the study show a very strong positive relationship between the level of digitalization of the financial sector and the volume of green investments per capita (r = 0.988; R2 = 0.977; p < 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that the greatest contribution to the development of green finance is provided by the coverage of ESG regulation, followed by digitalization and financial inclusion. Scenario modeling has shown that upon reaching a high level of digital maturity, the volume of green bonds in Kazakhstan may increase from $2.8 billion to $14.2 billion by 2030, accompanied by the creation of up to 67,000 new “green” jobs. The results obtained confirm that digitalization is a necessary but insufficient condition for the development of green finance without appropriate institutional and regulatory support for ESG.

финтехфинансовая инклюзиясоциальная инклюзияцифровизациясоциальный ростустойчивое развитиеЦентральная АзияFintechFinancial InclusionSocial InclusionDigitalizationSocial GrowthSustainable DevelopmentCentral AsiaReferencesADB. (2023). Climate risks for the financial system of Central Asia. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.adb.org/publications/ado-2023-thematic-reporADB. (2023). Climate risks for the financial system of Central Asia. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.adb.org/publications/ado-2023-thematic-reporADB. (2025). Green finance development in Asia and the Pacific: Trends and outlook. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.adb.orgADB. (2025). Green finance development in Asia and the Pacific: Trends and outlook. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.adb.orgAuer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2020). Rise of the central bank digital currencies (BIS Working Papers No. 880). Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.bis.org/publ/work880.pdfAuer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2020). Rise of the central bank digital currencies (BIS Working Papers No. 880). Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.bis.org/publ/work880.pdfAzhgaliyeva, D., & Kapsalyamova, Z. (2023). Policy support in promoting green bonds in Asia: empirical evidence. Climate Policy, 23(4), 430–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2167800Azhgaliyeva, D., & Kapsalyamova, Z. (2023). Policy support in promoting green bonds in Asia: empirical evidence. Climate Policy, 23(4), 430–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2167800Campiglio, E. (2016). Beyond carbon pricing: The role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy. Ecological Economics, 121, 220–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.03.020Campiglio, E. (2016). Beyond carbon pricing: The role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy. Ecological Economics, 121, 220–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.03.020Daniya, G., & Tang, D. (2024). Green finance and industrial Low-Carbon Transition: A Case Study on Green Economy Policy in Kazakhstan. Sustainability, 16(17), 2-23, 7731. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177731Daniya, G., & Tang, D. (2024). Green finance and industrial Low-Carbon Transition: A Case Study on Green Economy Policy in Kazakhstan. Sustainability, 16(17), 2-23, 7731. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177731Dong, X., Guo, K., & Zhao, X. (2024). Does digital economy promote regional green innovation? An empirical study based on the transmission effect and threshold effect of marketization. Journal of Digital Economy, 3, 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2024.07.002Dong, X., Guo, K., & Zhao, X. (2024). Does digital economy promote regional green innovation? An empirical study based on the transmission effect and threshold effect of marketization. Journal of Digital Economy, 3, 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdec.2024.07.002Ehlers, T., & Packer, F. (2017). Green bond finance and certification. BIS Quarterly Review, 89–104. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709h.pdfEhlers, T., & Packer, F. (2017). Green bond finance and certification. BIS Quarterly Review, 89–104. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709h.pdfIFC. (2024). Emerging market green finance report 2024. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2025/emerging-market-green-bonds-2024IFC. (2024). Emerging market green finance report 2024. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2025/emerging-market-green-bonds-2024IIMD. (2024). World digital competitiveness ranking 2024. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.imd.org/centers/wcc/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/world-digital-competitivenessrankingIIMD. (2024). World digital competitiveness ranking 2024. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.imd.org/centers/wcc/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/world-digital-competitivenessrankingKomilova, M., Nader, M., & Ajayi, R. (2025). Evolution of FinTech in Central Asian Countries and Implications for the Region’s Economy. FinTech, 4(4), 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech4040069Komilova, M., Nader, M., & Ajayi, R. (2025). Evolution of FinTech in Central Asian Countries and Implications for the Region’s Economy. FinTech, 4(4), 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech4040069Kurbanova, K., Romanenko, S., & Mukhanova, G. (2024). The digital future of financial instruments in advancing the green economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 147(1), 104–117. https://doi.org/10.26577/jerba202414719Kurbanova, K., Romanenko, S., & Mukhanova, G. (2024). The digital future of financial instruments in advancing the green economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 147(1), 104–117. https://doi.org/10.26577/jerba202414719Lee, C. C., Wang, C. W., & Ho, S. J. (2022). Financial aid and financial inclusion: Does risk uncertainty matter? Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 71, 101700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101700Lee, C. C., Wang, C. W., & Ho, S. J. (2022). Financial aid and financial inclusion: Does risk uncertainty matter? Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 71, 101700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101700National Bank. (2025). Annual report on financial stability. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.nationalbank.kzNational Bank. (2025). Annual report on financial stability. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.nationalbank.kzNurgaliyeva, K., Koshkina, O., Zaitenova, N., Kireyeva, A., & Kredina, A. (2024). Relationship between banking infrastructure, innovation and economic growth in Kazakhstan. Banks and Bank Systems, 19(2), 40-52. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.19(2).2024.04Nurgaliyeva, K., Koshkina, O., Zaitenova, N., Kireyeva, A., & Kredina, A. (2024). Relationship between banking infrastructure, innovation and economic growth in Kazakhstan. Banks and Bank Systems, 19(2), 40-52. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.19(2).2024.04Nurmagambetova, A., Arifioglu, A. Z., Nurgaliyeva, A., Assanova, A., & Alisheva, D. (2026). Development and implementation of the green lending ecosystem: Bank-level factors, volumes, stability channels and short-term forecasts (2015–2024). Banks and Bank Systems, 21(1), 153–172. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(1).2026.12Nurmagambetova, A., Arifioglu, A. Z., Nurgaliyeva, A., Assanova, A., & Alisheva, D. (2026). Development and implementation of the green lending ecosystem: Bank-level factors, volumes, stability channels and short-term forecasts (2015–2024). Banks and Bank Systems, 21(1), 153–172. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.21(1).2026.12OECD. (2023). Financing Uzbekistan’s green transition: Capital market development and opportunities for green bond issuance. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/27d2489d-enOECD. (2023). Financing Uzbekistan’s green transition: Capital market development and opportunities for green bond issuance. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/27d2489d-enOECD. (2024). Green finance and digital transformation: Policy frameworks and trends. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.oecd.orgOECD. (2024). Green finance and digital transformation: Policy frameworks and trends. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.oecd.orgRakhymzhan, G., Dabyltayeva, N. E., Sakhanova, G., Ruziyeva, E. A., & Bekmukhametova, A. B. (2024). Navigating Kazakhstan’s Sustainable Economic Future: A Study of Tech Innovation, Infrastructure, and Resource Management. Economies, 12(5), 104. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12050104Rakhymzhan, G., Dabyltayeva, N. E., Sakhanova, G., Ruziyeva, E. A., & Bekmukhametova, A. B. (2024). Navigating Kazakhstan’s Sustainable Economic Future: A Study of Tech Innovation, Infrastructure, and Resource Management. Economies, 12(5), 104. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12050104Sachs, J. D., Schmidt-Traub, G., Mazzucato, M., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., & Rockström, J. (2019). Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 805–814. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0352-9Sachs, J. D., Schmidt-Traub, G., Mazzucato, M., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., & Rockström, J. (2019). Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 805–814. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0352-9Satanbekov, N., Adambekova, A., Adambeko, N., Anessova, A., & Adambekova, Zh. (2026). Regional Finance and Environmental Outcomes: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan’s Regions. Economies, 14(2), 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14020037Satanbekov, N., Adambekova, A., Adambeko, N., Anessova, A., & Adambekova, Zh. (2026). Regional Finance and Environmental Outcomes: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan’s Regions. Economies, 14(2), 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14020037Sembayeva, Z. (2025). Emerging green and digital sustainable markets in Central Asia: A comparative analysis of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan within China’s BRI framework. Bulletin of Ablai Khan KazUIRandWL, 61(3), 288– 317. https://doi.org/10.48371/ISMO.2025.61.3.017Sembayeva, Z. (2025). Emerging green and digital sustainable markets in Central Asia: A comparative analysis of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan within China’s BRI framework. Bulletin of Ablai Khan KazUIRandWL, 61(3), 288– 317. https://doi.org/10.48371/ISMO.2025.61.3.017Shen, F., Liu, B., Luo, F., Wu, C., Chen, H., & Wei, W. (2021). The effect of economic growth target constraints on green technology innovation. Journal of Environmental Management, 292, 112765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112765Shen, F., Liu, B., Luo, F., Wu, C., Chen, H., & Wei, W. (2021). The effect of economic growth target constraints on green technology innovation. Journal of Environmental Management, 292, 112765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112765Shinozaki, S. (2023). Do Digitalization and Digital Finance Help Small Firms Survive Global Economic Uncertainty in Central and West Asia? Evidence from Rapid Surveys. Sustainability, 15(13), 10696. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310696Shinozaki, S. (2023). Do Digitalization and Digital Finance Help Small Firms Survive Global Economic Uncertainty in Central and West Asia? Evidence from Rapid Surveys. Sustainability, 15(13), 10696. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310696World Bank. (2024). Global green bond market database: Annual review. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/green-bonds-climate-bondsWorld Bank. (2024). Global green bond market database: Annual review. Retrieved March 30, 2026 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/green-bonds-climate-bondsYuldoshboy, S., Artikov, B., Saburov, J., Khodjaniyazov, E., Karimov, M., Saidmamatov, O., Marty, P. (2025). Exploring ICT as an Engine for Sustainable Economic Growth in Central Asia. Economies, 13(12),365. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13120365Yuldoshboy, S., Artikov, B., Saburov, J., Khodjaniyazov, E., Karimov, M., Saidmamatov, O., Marty, P. (2025). Exploring ICT as an Engine for Sustainable Economic Growth in Central Asia. Economies, 13(12),365. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13120365Zakharkina, L., Rubanov, P., Kabdybay, A., Zakharkin, O., & Chernobay, L. (2025). Digitalization–CSR integration in transitional banking: Evidence from Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Banks and Bank Systems, 20(4), 256–275. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.20(4).2025.20Zakharkina, L., Rubanov, P., Kabdybay, A., Zakharkin, O., & Chernobay, L. (2025). Digitalization–CSR integration in transitional banking: Evidence from Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Banks and Bank Systems, 20(4), 256–275. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.20(4).2025.20Zakariya, G., Akylbekov, O., Moldagulova, A., & Satybaldiyeva, R. (2026). Innovative Credit Scoring and Sales Accounting Solutions in Kazakhstan. FinTech, 5(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech5010001Zakariya, G., Akylbekov, O., Moldagulova, A., & Satybaldiyeva, R. (2026). Innovative Credit Scoring and Sales Accounting Solutions in Kazakhstan. FinTech, 5(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech5010001

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.