qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2026-1-159-175qainar-523Research ArticleСтатьиТрансформация сельской инфраструктуры и адаптация к климатическим изменениямRural Infrastructure Transformation and Climate Adaptation in Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0162-3248КуралбаеваА. Ш.KuralbayevaA. Sh.

д.э.н., профессор 

Шымкент 

Alma Sh. Kuralbayeva – Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Professor 

Shymkent 

kuralbayeva.a@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7363-8214ЖусиповаЭ. Е.ZhussipovaE. E.

PhD, доцент 

Шымкент 

Elmira E. Zhussipova 

Shymkent 

elmira_zhusipova@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-7443-6361ЕсенбекЧ. Н.YessenbekCh. N.

PhD докторант 

Кокшетау 

Chinar N. Yessenbek 

Kokshetau 

chinar_87@mail.ruЦентрально-Азиатский инновационный университетКазахстанCentral Asian Innovation UniversityKazakhstanЮжно-Казахстанский университет им. М. АуэзоваКазахстанM. Auezov South Kazakhstan UniversityKazakhstanКокшетауский университет имени Абая МырзахметоваКазахстанAbai Myrzakhmetov Kokshetau UniversityKazakhstan20260104202651159175Copyright © Куралбаева А.Ш., Жусипова Э.Е., Есенбек Ч.Н., 20262026Куралбаева А.Ш., Жусипова Э.Е., Есенбек Ч.Н.Kuralbayeva A.S., Zhussipova E.E., Yessenbek C.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/523

Сегодня влияние климатических изменений на сельское хозяйство усиливается, что обуславливает необходимость переосмысления роли сельской инфраструктуры как ключевого фактора устойчивости и адаптационного потенциала аграрного сектора. Целью исследования является оценка влияния развития сельской инфраструктуры на устойчивость сельского хозяйства Казахстана с учетом региональной дифференциации и климатических факторов. Методологическая основа исследования включает методы описательной статистики, сравнительного анализа и эконометрического моделирования. Использованы панельные данные Бюро национальной статистики РК по пяти макрорегионам Казахстана за 2010–2025 гг. Результаты показали наличие устойчивой положительной взаимосвязи между развитием инфраструктуры и устойчивостью сельского хозяйства. В базовой модели увеличение инфраструктурного индекса на 1 единицу приводит к росту индекса устойчивости на 0,58 (β = 0.58; R² = 0.81). Расширенная модель обладает более высокой объясняющей способностью и показывает, что наибольшее влияние оказывает водная инфраструктура (β = 0.34), далее следуют цифровая (β = 0.29) и транспортная (β = 0.17) компоненты. Региональный анализ выявил существенную дифференциацию: максимальные значения устойчивости наблюдаются в Северном макрорегионе, тогда как Западный макрорегион остается наиболее уязвимым. Полученные результаты подтверждают, что сельская инфраструктура выступает системным механизмом адаптации к климатическим изменениям, однако ее эффективность определяется структурной сбалансированностью и региональными условиями. Наибольший эффект достигается при комплексном развитии водной, цифровой и транспортной инфраструктуры.

Today, the impact of climate change on agriculture is increasing and there is a need to rethink the role of rural infrastructure as a key factor in the sustainability and adaptive potential of the agricultural sector. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of rural infrastructure development on the sustainability of agriculture in Kazakhstan, taking into account regional differentiation and climatic factors. The methodological basis of the research includes methods of descriptive statistics, comparative analysis and econometric modeling. Panel data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan on five macro-regions of Kazakhstan for 2010-2025 were used. The results showed that there is a stable positive relationship between infrastructure development and agricultural sustainability. In the basic model, an increase in the infrastructure index by 1 unit leads to an increase in the sustainability index by 0.58 (β = 0.58; R2 = 0.81). The extended model has a higher explanatory power and shows that the greatest impact is exerted by water infrastructure (β = 0.34), followed by digital (β = 0.29) and transport (β = 0.17) components. The regional analysis revealed a significant differentiation: the maximum values of sustainability are observed in the Northern macroregion, while the Western macroregion remains the most vulnerable. The results obtained confirm that rural infrastructure acts as a systemic mechanism for adaptation to climate change, but its effectiveness is determined by its structural balance and regional conditions. The greatest effect is achieved with the integrated development of water, digital and transport infrastructure.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.