qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2025-4-82-101qainar-495Research ArticleСтатьиРазвитие человеческого капитала и трансформация трудовых ресурсов в КазахстанеHuman Capital Development and Transformation of Labor Resources in Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0533-2728КалиеваС. А.KaliyevaS. A.

д.э.н., главный научный сотрудник

Алматы, Казахстан

Saule A. Kaliyeva, Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Chief Researcher

Almaty, Kazakhstan

kalievas_@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-2476-2660СейсенбаеваС. Р.SeisenbayevaS. R.

PhD докторант

Алматы, Казахстан

Saule R. Seisenbayeva, PhD student

Almaty, Kazakhstan

saramatal@mail.ruШерханШ. Е.SherkhanSh. Е.

магистр, научный сотрудник

Алматы, Казахстан

Shapagat Е. Sherkhan, Master Degree, Researcher

Almaty, Kazakhstan

shapagat759@gmail.comИнститут экономики КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Economics CS MSHE RKKazakhstanКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанal-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan2025090120264482101Copyright © Калиева С.А., Сейсенбаева С.Р., Шерхан Ш.Е., 20262026Калиева С.А., Сейсенбаева С.Р., Шерхан Ш.Е.Kaliyeva S.A., Seisenbayeva S.R., Sherkhan S.Е.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/495

В условиях структурных и демографических изменений, ускоренной цифровизации и роста требований к качеству рабочей силы анализ трудовых ресурсов приобретает ключевое значение для устойчивого социально-экономического развития Казахстана. Целью данной статьи является анализ динамики и структурной трансформации трудовых ресурсов в Казахстане с акцентом на развитие человеческого капитала, изменения в возрастной, гендерной, образовательной и отраслевой структуре занятости. Методологическую основу исследования составляют методы сравнительного, структурного и экономико-статистического анализа, а также трендовый анализ, применённые для оценки динамики занятости, безработицы и качественных характеристик рабочей силы. Эмпирическая база исследования сформирована на основе официальных данных Бюро национальной статистики Республики Казахстан, материалов выборочных обследований рабочей силы, а также нормативно-правовых документов в сфере занятости и квалификаций. Результаты исследования показали, что в 2019–2024 гг. уровень занятости в стране сохранялся на высоком уровне (около 65%), а уровень безработицы оставался стабильным в пределах 4,7–4,9%. Численность занятых увеличилась почти на 5%, при одновременном росте доли работников с высшим и техническим образованием, которые в совокупности формируют более 90% занятости. Перспективы дальнейших исследований связаны с развитием моделей прогнозирования спроса на компетенции, оценкой эффективности Национальной системы квалификаций и анализом влияния цифровой трансформации на качество занятости и производительность труда.

In the context of structural and demographic changes, accelerated digitalization, and increasing demands on the quality of the workforce, the analysis of labor resources is of key importance for the sustainable socio-economic development of Kazakhstan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics and structural transformation of the labor force in Kazakhstan with an emphasis on the development of human capital, changes in age, gender, educational, and sectoral employment structure. The methodological basis of the research consists of methods of comparative, structural, and economic-statistical analysis, as well as trend analysis, used to assess the dynamics of employment, unemployment, and qualitative characteristics of the workforce. The empirical base of the study is based on official data from the Bureau of National Statistics (2024), materials from sample surveys of the labor force, as well as regulatory documents in the field of employment and qualifications. The results of the study showed that in 2019-2024. The employment rate in the country remained at a high level (about 65%), while the unemployment rate remained stable in the range of 4.7-4.9%. The number of employees increased by almost 5%, while the share of workers with higher and technical education increased, which together account for more than 90% of employment. The prospects for further research are related to the development of models for forecasting the demand for competencies, evaluating the effectiveness of the National Qualifications System, and analyzing the impact of digital transformation on employment quality and labor productivity. 

рынок трудазанятостькачество занятостичеловеческий капиталсоциальная устойчивостьсоциальная трансформациясоциальный рискбезработицаLabor MarketEmploymentQuality of EmploymentHuman CapitalSocial SustainabilitySocial TransformationSocial RiskUnemploymentThis study is funded by the Committee of Science MSHE RK (grant No. AP23488981 “Transformation of Kazakhstan's workforce against the background of technological challenges: new quality, model, scenarios”)ReferencesAliyeva, B. M., Mukhamedyarova, L. R., Markhayeva, B. A., Telagussova, E. O., & Ydyrys, Y. Zh. (2025). Analysis of employment policy effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Regional clustering approach. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 69(2), 141–157. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v69i2.508Aliyeva, B. M., Mukhamedyarova, L. R., Markhayeva, B. A., Telagussova, E. O., & Ydyrys, Y. Zh. (2025). Analysis of employment policy effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Regional clustering approach. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 69(2), 141–157. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v69i2.508Autor, D. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.3Autor, D. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.3Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (3rd ed.). The University of Chicago Press. Bureau of National Statistics (2024). Labor and income: Employment and unemployment. Retrieved November 27, 2025, from https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/labor-and-income/statempt-unemplBecker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (3rd ed.). The University of Chicago Press. Bureau of National Statistics (2024). Labor and income: Employment and unemployment. Retrieved November 27, 2025, from https://stat.gov.kz/en/industries/labor-and-income/statempt-unemplFreeman, R. B. (2007). The great doubling: The challenge of the new global labor market. Harvard University, Labor and Worklife Program.Freeman, R. B. (2007). The great doubling: The challenge of the new global labor market. Harvard University, Labor and Worklife Program.Insebayeva, S., & Beyssembayev, S. (2023). Digital platform employment in Kazakhstan: Can new technologies solve old problems in the labor market? International Labor and WorkingClass History, 103, 62–80. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0147547923000200Insebayeva, S., & Beyssembayev, S. (2023). Digital platform employment in Kazakhstan: Can new technologies solve old problems in the labor market? International Labor and WorkingClass History, 103, 62–80. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0147547923000200Kaliyeva, S. A., Buitek, E. K., & Meldakhanova, M. K. (2020). Analysis of the youth labor market in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of global challenges. Economy: Strategy and Practice, 15(4), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.51176/JESP%2FISSUE_4_T7 (In Kazakh)Kaliyeva, S. A., Buitek, E. K., & Meldakhanova, M. K. (2020). Analysis of the youth labor market in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of global challenges. Economy: Strategy and Practice, 15(4), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.51176/JESP%2FISSUE_4_T7 (In Kazakh)Kapeliushnikov, R. (2012). Russia’s human capital: What is its value? (Working Paper WP3/2012/06). National Research University Higher School of Economics.Kapeliushnikov, R. (2012). Russia’s human capital: What is its value? (Working Paper WP3/2012/06). National Research University Higher School of Economics.Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2025). Demographic resilience as a strategic driver of development: Prospects for Kazakhstan (Discussion paper). Retrieved November 27, 2025, from https://kisi.kz/wpcontent/uploads/2025/11/demographic-resilience_eng_final_20_10.pdfKazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2025). Demographic resilience as a strategic driver of development: Prospects for Kazakhstan (Discussion paper). Retrieved November 27, 2025, from https://kisi.kz/wpcontent/uploads/2025/11/demographic-resilience_eng_final_20_10.pdfNational Qualifications System (NQS). (2025). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://career.enbek.kz/ru/pages/about-nskNational Qualifications System (NQS). (2025). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://career.enbek.kz/ru/pages/about-nskRepublic of Kazakhstan (2023, August 18). Order on approval of the rules for the development and approval of qualification programs, as well as requirements for them (No. 348). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/V2300033317Republic of Kazakhstan (2023, August 18). Order on approval of the rules for the development and approval of qualification programs, as well as requirements for them (No. 348). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/V2300033317Republic of Kazakhstan. (2016, April 6). Law on employment of the population (No. 482-V ZPK). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/Z1600000482Republic of Kazakhstan. (2016, April 6). Law on employment of the population (No. 482-V ZPK). Retrieved November 27, 2025 from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/Z1600000482

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.