qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2025-4-6-24qainar-491Research ArticleСтатьиДетерминанты молодежной безработицы в Казахстане и особенности перехода молодежи на рынок трудаDeterminants of Youth Unemployment in Kazakhstan and the Dynamics of the School-to-Work Transitionhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-8575-6649ТоребековА. Е.TorebekovA. E.

PhD докторант

Алматы, Казахстан

Akarys E. Torebekov, PhD candidate

Almaty, Kazakhstan

torebekooov@gmail.comУниверситет Международного Бизнеса им. К.СагадиеваКазахстанUniversity of International Business named after K. SagadiyevKazakhstan20250901202644624Copyright © Торебеков А.Е., 20262026Торебеков А.Е.Torebekov A.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/491

Настоящее исследование посвящено комплексному анализу детерминант молодежной безработицы в Казахстане и особенностей перехода молодых людей от обучения к устойчивой занятости. Цель работы заключается в выявлении ключевых структурных, институциональных и социально-экономических факторов, влияющих на занятость молодежи, а также в оценке динамики показателей NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) и занятости в 2020–2024 гг. Методическая база включает описательную статистику, сравнительный анализ, корреляционный анализ. Исходные данные получены из официальных источников Бюро национальной статистики РК, Международной организации труда и Всемирного банка, с разбивкой по полу, регионам и уровню образования. Результаты показали, что за 2020–2024 гг. уровень молодежной безработицы сократился с 7.0% до 6.2%, NEET — с 6.9% до 5.7%, а доля неформальной занятости снизилась с 21.3% до 17.9%. У молодых женщин NEET стабильно выше (6.7% в 2024 г.) по сравнению с мужчинами (4.9%), а регионы с наиболее высокой безработицей – Туркестанская область (7.8%) и Шымкент (7.2%). Образовательные различия остаются ключевыми: уровень занятости среди молодежи с высшим образованием достигает 78%, тогда как у лиц с базовым средним — лишь 38.9%. Полученные результаты подтверждают структурный характер молодежной безработицы, отражающий несоответствие между компетенциями выпускников и спросом на рынке труда, региональные дисбалансы и ограниченность качественных стартовых рабочих мест.Пути будущих исследований предполагают развитие более сложных количественных моделей для оценки государственных программ и их влияния на создание рабочих мест. 

This study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of youth unemployment in Kazakhstan and the specifics of the transition from education to sustainable employment for young people. The aim of the work is to identify key structural, institutional and socio-economic factors that affect youth employment, as well as to assess the dynamics of Not in Employment, Education or Training (hereinafter – NEET) and employment indicators from 2020 to 2044. The methodological basis includes descriptive statistics, comparative analysis and correlation analysis. Initial data were obtained from official sources such as the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, International Labor Organization, and World Bank, disaggregated by gender, region, and level of education. Results showed that between 2019 and 2039, the youth unemployment rate decreased from 7% to 6%, NEET decreased from 6% to 4%, and the proportion of informal employment fell from 18% to 9%.. Young women have consistently higher NEET rates (6.7% in 2024) than men (4.9%). The regions with the highest unemployment rates are Turkestan Oblast and Shymkent, at 7.8% and 7.2% respectively. Educational differences remain significant: the employment rate for young people with a higher education is 78%, compared to only 38.9% for those with basic secondary education. These results confirm the structural nature of youth unemployment, resulting from a mismatch between graduates' skills and job market demand, as well as regional imbalances and limited entry-level positions. Future research paths involve the development of more sophisticated quantitative models to evaluate government programs and their impact on job creation.  

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.