qainarQainar Journal of Social ScienceQainar Journal of Social Science2958-72122958-7220Q University10.58732/2958-7212-2023-3-6-22qainar-121Research ArticleСтатьиДемографический прогноз населения Казахстана: методика и перспективы развитияDemographic Forecast of the Population of Kazakhstan: Methods and Development Prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9333-7582ЧулановаЗ. К.ChulanovaZ. K.

Чуланова З.К. – к.э.н., в.н.с.

Алматы

Zaure K. Chulanova – PhD in Economics, Leading Researcher

Almaty

zaure.ch@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681СпанкуловаЛ. С.SpankulovaL. S.

Спанкулова Л.С. – д.э.н., доцент

Алматы

Lazat S. Spankulova – Dr. Sc. (Econ), Associate Professor

Almaty

lyazzat.spankulova@kaznu.kzИнститут экономики КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Economics MSHE RKKazakhstanКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанal-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan20230612202323622Copyright © Чуланова З.К., Спанкулова Л.С., 20232023Чуланова З.К., Спанкулова Л.С.Chulanova Z.K., Spankulova L.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.journal-kainar.kz/jour/article/view/121

Состояние и перспективы демографических процессов очень важны для развития страны, так как изменение этих параметров влечет за собой изменения в других сферах жизни общества и экономики. Цель статьи – прогнозирование демографической ситуации в Казахстане с учетом особенностей социально-экономического развития. Прогнозирование демографических показателей осуществлено несколькими методами, в частности, когортно-компонентным. Прогнозы численности и структуры населения разработаны на основе анализа тенденций демографических процессов, их причинно-следственных связей с социально-экономическими процессами. В качестве исходных данных использовались данные официальной демографической статистики и республиканских переписей населения 2009 и 2021 годов. Также представлены расчеты альтернативными методами: прогнозы численности населения с использованием методов перспектив и перемещений и с использованием среднего коэффициента роста, формул экспоненциальной кривой, естественных и механических перемещений, полиномов второй и третьей степени. Полученные результаты включают данные об общей численности населения Казахстана, его возрастной и гендерной структур.

The state and prospects of demographic processes are very important for the country's development since a change in these parameters entails changes in other areas of society and the economy. The purpose of the article is to predict the demographic situation in Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of socio-economic development. Forecasting of demographic indicators was carried out by several methods, in particular, by cohort component. Forecasts of the population size and structure are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes, and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from official demographic statistics and Republican population censuses of 2009 and 2021 were used as initial data. Calculations by alternative methods are also presented: population projections using the methods of prospects and displacements and using the average growth rate, exponential curve formulas, natural and mechanical displacements, and polynomials of the second and third degrees. The results obtained include data on the total population of Kazakhstan, its age, and gender structure.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.